What’s up in 2009?
I believe that in 2008 the last step of a digital shift has taken place. Why’s that?
1. Some of my most recent friends on facebook were never in to digital up to now
2. Even my mother considers using her credit card in the Internet
3. Some random people asked me, which NAS (network attached storage) they should buy
4. I joined twitter
The digital evolution just reflects some sociological facts. People have less time and thus, leisure has become rare and more valuable than ever. Whatever saves us time or makes life easier is very much appreciated. Online shopping, banking, planning, and organization become even more popular and recommendations of other users are an important factor in decision process when having multiple options for action.
People’s fear of online transactions is diminishing and the uncertainty of the consequences of online presence even turned into some kind of exhibitionism - at least with the not too old generation. My guess is that the online show off will continue and swap over to the mobile, like early adopters are already demonstrating.
The major concerns in the digital world are rising complexity, central storage, secure backup, managing identities and the protection of privacy. This is especially true for non-affine users and will drive the digital evolution one step further. In order to delegate complexity and responsibility, people will discover the benefits of virtualization. Important players are already deploying solutions in different domains like storage, office applications, and photo processing.
So here comes my guess about things to happen in 2009:
- Google will launch the first version of a virtual (remotely running) Operating System. Microsoft will try the same thing but too expensive and too late.
- Google or Amazon will launch some remote storage service, not too expensive. Streaming to home and mobile devices included
- Facebook’s saturation limit will be reached in autumn 2009.
- Some non-telco-provided open-standard non-DRM-protected Internet-browser-based TV Set Top Box will break into the digital TV market (maybe this is more like a wish). In addition, it will stream home network content to the TV screen easily.
- Steve Jobs will announce an Everest (or some other challenging) expedition to prove he’s completely fit and to stop forever the rumors about his bad state of health
Tags: 2009 forecast outlook