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I recently remembered some interesting discussions a few years ago in R&D, when the business departments of the company complained that innovation was too strongly driven by new technologies rather than a real user need which in their eyes lead to products and services that nobody wanted. In some cases they were right.
But how can users know about their needs in context with unknown future technologies? If you just ask them, most probably they want the same services only much faster or the same products in better quality, etc. Of course, there are techniques like deep dives to find out what the pain of customers is to provide them with new offers that fit their needs. However, most people in user research are not familiar with the opportunities of future technologies and might not be able to come up with the best pain killers by themselves.
In my opinion innovation should be driven by both, technology and user needs. The lead can be taken by one or the other, depending on the case. A smart engineer might ask himself what new services could be offered through the almost seamless coverage of privately owned WLANs in cities, create some ideas and double-check them with customer researchers. On the other hand, a usability consultant could discover people’s difficulties with SMS-writing while driving and find possible solutions with engineers.
Technology-driven innovation is not wrong per se, there should be a good mix.

Again and again I read about studies that “prove” exciting facts in various magazines and journals. Just three of them:
1. “The risk of becoming fat increases with TV consumption”.
2. “Kids that do not sleep enough are less likely to get a high school degree”
3. “People in a lucky partnership are less likely to suffer from cancer”

The pattern is always similar: 2 variables (A and B) - depicted as cause and effect - are analyzed for correlation. If there is a relationship, for example:
“If A is higher, there is more B” or “If A is not given, then B is present” the fact that A leads to be is taken as proven.

In the first example - the one with the television - they asked people how much TV they watched and recorded the weight and height (most probably, just guessing). Then they drew a graph and saw that fat people watched more TV and vice versa. Until now, this was just a fact but with some interpretation there is a dependency of the weight and TV consumption, the latter being the cause. Maybe this is what should have been proven from the beginning and thus, further dependencies and causes are not analyzed.

What about this (alternative interpretation): There are more and less active people, determined by birth. The more active people move more, like to be outside and have natural eating habits. The less active don’t like to move and are staying inside more often. They don’t like organic food and don’t have natural eating habits. While the first type stays healthy and slim, the second type grows fat.

In the second example - the one with the kids - it could also well be (just interpretation as well) that socially poor families pay less attention to a decent education, their kids don’t have to follow many rules, they can go to bed when they like (or after the action movie that runs on TV) and do not have to make proper homework. Additionally, their parents don’t think that a high school degree is somehow important (they don’t have one either) and thus, their kids are less likely to go to high school.

I’m not saying that my explanations are more likely than the original ones. However, as long as not every possible cause has been examined or as long as there is a real proof (for example an observable connection of two events, including a blank test), it’s just two variables that correlate somehow.

I believe that in 2008 the last step of a digital shift has taken place. Why’s that?

1. Some of my most recent friends on facebook were never in to digital up to now
2. Even my mother considers using her credit card in the Internet
3. Some random people asked me, which NAS (network attached storage) they should buy
4. I joined twitter

The digital evolution just reflects some sociological facts. People have less time and thus, leisure has become rare and more valuable than ever. Whatever saves us time or makes life easier is very much appreciated. Online shopping, banking, planning, and organization become even more popular and recommendations of other users are an important factor in decision process when having multiple options for action.

People’s fear of online transactions is diminishing and the uncertainty of the consequences of online presence even turned into some kind of exhibitionism - at least with the not too old generation. My guess is that the online show off will continue and swap over to the mobile, like early adopters are already demonstrating.

The major concerns in the digital world are rising complexity, central storage, secure backup, managing identities and the protection of privacy. This is especially true for non-affine users and will drive the digital evolution one step further. In order to delegate complexity and responsibility, people will discover the benefits of virtualization. Important players are already deploying solutions in different domains like storage, office applications, and photo processing.

So here comes my guess about things to happen in 2009:
- Google will launch the first version of a virtual (remotely running) Operating System. Microsoft will try the same thing but too expensive and too late.
- Google or Amazon will launch some remote storage service, not too expensive. Streaming to home and mobile devices included
- Facebook’s saturation limit will be reached in autumn 2009.
- Some non-telco-provided open-standard non-DRM-protected Internet-browser-based TV Set Top Box will break into the digital TV market (maybe this is more like a wish). In addition, it will stream home network content to the TV screen easily.
- Steve Jobs will announce an Everest (or some other challenging) expedition to prove he’s completely fit and to stop forever the rumors about his bad state of health

Most of the people we invite for dinner are clearly geeks too, in one or the other way. We know chemists, physicists and of course computer scientists.
In advance to such dinners we always collect some questions, which life brings up: “Why is cream getting compact when being whipped?”, “Are the lights really out when I close the door of the fridge?”, etc. Depending on who is having dinner with us, we bring up those questions and are sometimes surprised, how the pros are struggling in their own domains when it’s about simple kids questions.
The most challenging guests are those from the same domain. I had a PC support call during dessert and was explaining to my dad how he can check connectivity. Even though I was on the lower floor when I said to him “now you write ‘ifconfig -a’ “, there were two people calling out “he’s got a Windows, it’s ‘ipconfig’!”

Bereits ist wieder Dezember. Es liegt schon reichlich Schnee und die neue Tourenausrüstung ist abholbereit. Der richtige Moment um sich wieder mal mit den neusten Errungenschaften der Lawinenrettungstechnik zu beschäftigen. In den letzten Jahren hat sich viel getan im bezahlbaren Bereich. Zusätzlich zur Standardausrüstung mit Barrivox, Sonde und Schaufel sind Avalungs und Aribags im Sortiment prominent vertreten. Beides wird mit speziellem Rucksack vertrieben. Das Airbag Prinzip ist vergleichbar mit einem Autoairbag mit dem Unterschied, dass er nicht den Aufprall dämpfen soll, sondern eher das Lawinenofer gut auffindbar an der Oberfläche der abgehenden Lawine halten soll. Bei Avalung geht es darum, mit einem Atmungssystem das Überleben in der Lawine erheblich zu verlängern.
Zwei Rucksäcke kann ich ja nicht tragen und eine Entscheidung ist somit unausweichlich. Dass sich die beiden Systeme im Preis um mindestens 500 Euro unterscheiden ist sekundär, schliesslich geht’s um’s Überleben.. Es gilt also eine preisunabhängige Analyse zu führen.
Gegen den Airbag spricht, dass er recht gross ist und sich sehr schnell aufbläst. Wäre an sich nicht so schlimm, erinnert aber an den Auto Airbag oder an die Notweste in Flugzeugen - beides weckt bei mir unangenehme Gefühle. Dafür ist die Chance da, dass man überlebt, auch wenn man ganz allein unterwegs ist. Der Nachteil vom Avalung ist, dass ich wohl innerhalb von 5 Minuten erfrohren wäre, lange bevor mir die Luft ausgeht. Dafür ist er kompakt und diskret in enen sehr schönen Blackdiamond Rucksack verpackt und errinnert nicht ständig an Lebensgefahr.

Der Nachteil beider Systeme meiner Meinung nach ist, dass man risikofreudiger wird, was schliesslich die Chance von einer Lawine erfasst zu werden nicht kleiner macht. Andererseits wäre die gewissensberuhigende Komponente vielleicht so stark, dass sich besorgte Personen wie ich unterwegs in der Einsamkeit endlich mit relevanten Dingen beschäftigen könnte anstatt pausenlos die Schneeverhältnisse, Hanglage, Wetter, Temperatur und andere Gruppen zu beobachten.

All diese Überlegungen bringen mich zum Schluss, dass ich heute schon eine sehr risikoarme Variante von Bergwintersport praktiziere. Ich meide steile Hänge, viel Neuschnee, instabile Schneeschichten, Nordhänge, Wetterumschlag, spaltenreiche Gletscher, Schneewächten, und so weiter. Angsthase von Natur aus eben. Glücklicherweise bieten die Alpen zahlreiche schöne Gipfel, die meinen strengen Sicherheitsanforderungen genügen. Und für alle Fälle habe ich noch die Standardausrüstung dabei und ein paar Rekko Tags in den Kleidern. Und wenn wirklich mal alles schiefgeht - was sich ja nicht ausschliessen lässt - sterbe ich lieber in einer Lawine als im Strassenverkehr.

If someone would have asked me 10 years ago i would have bet all my Macs that in 2008 there is Internet in trains, restaurants,.. everywhere. Now I’m older and wiser and have worked for a telecommunication company and thus I think: having Internet everywhere in acceptable speed with no interruptions is pure fiction.

For commuters in trains, at least having mostly-seamless mid-speed connectivity would enhance the working experience a lot.

Of course I can see the technical challenges: WLAN in the coaches with an uplink to ordinary 3G (HSPA) is maybe not the future proof solution. Cell capacity is too limited for the about 150 laptops and 500 cell phones in a rush hour train. Additionally, the train moves with high speed - resulting in short handover slots - so that you’re already lucky if your phone calls do not get dropped all the time. Hence, the problem is in the nature of 3G technology and I’m sure that others (much smarter guys) have already thought of good solutions.

Even though I’m not working for a telco company any more I still try to find better product ideas when I’m sitting in the train with a broken connection. Here comes my favorite thought of this week: You can choose in a web interface of the train company which websites you will need during the journey. The sites are cached in huge repository which resides within the train and can be synced in all big stations. “Snapshot Internet in the train”, I would call it.

The new job is great: No 35 phone calls while absent, no 120 new mails on Monday morning, no internal politics and best of all - no endless powerpoints and excel sheets.

Commuting is fun with the right tools: iPod for music, iPod touch for gaming, Mac World for reading and most importantly: acer aspire one running kubuntu - well, not always running but that’s my fault.